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 June 2005

Businesses Anticipate Improvement in Local Economic Performance over the next six months

Download the
June 2005 Survey
in pdf format

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According to the June 2005 Business Outlook Survey a net 17 percent of respondents expect general business conditions to get better over the next six months. This represents a slight increase from 13 percent in the March 2005 survey. With regard to own activity, the net percent of reporting firms expecting to increase activity in the next six months was 34 percent. The more favorable outlook about general business conditions was most evident among health care, personal services, and communication and information firms.

The June 2005 survey indicated that about 51 percent of reporting firms experienced higher sales and about 23 percent experienced lower sales in the past six months compared to sales in the third and fourth quarters of 2004. In addition, the past six months witnessed an increase in the percentage of firms indicating increased employee compensation from 54 percent to 64 percent between the March 2005 and June 2005 surveys.

Summary of Returns
June 2005

Questions

Response

Improve/
Increase

Same

Worse/
Decrease

Unsure

(Percentage of Total Responses)

Business conditions in local economy in next six months 30 51 13 6
Level of activity of your firm in next six months 41 50 7 2
Capital expenditures of your firm in next six months 21 60 13 6
Employment by your firm in next six months 26 63 8 3
Average selling price of your firm in next six months 32 46 4 18
Access to financing by your firm in next six months 10 74 13 3
Employee compensation by your firm in last six months 64 35 1 0
Sales in last six months compared to previous six months 51 26 23 0

Survey Responses
Disaggregated by Sector/Activity

Questions by Industry

Response

Improve/
Increase

Same

Worse/
Decrease

Unsure

Manufacturing

(Percentage of Total Responses)

Business conditions in local economy in next six months 18 55 27 0
Level of activity of your firm in next six months 18 55 18 9
Construction
Business conditions in local economy in next six months 27 55 18 0
Level of activity of your firm in next six months 27 64 9 0
Real Estate
Business conditions in local economy in next six months 33 67 0 0
Level of activity of your firm in next six months 33 67 0 0
Retail & Wholesale Trade
Business conditions in local economy in next six months 26 52 9 13
Level of activity of your firm in next six months 31 61 4 4
Professional & Scientific Services
Business conditions in local economy in next six months 36 55 9 0
Level of activity of your firm in next six months 36 55 9 0
Health Care & Social Services
Business conditions in local economy in next six months 43 43 0 14
Level of activity of your firm in next six months 71 29 0 0
Other Services
Business conditions in local economy in next six months 67 33 0 0
Level of activity of your firm in next six months 67 17 16 0
Communications and Information
Business conditions in local economy in next six months 33 34 33 0
Level of activity of your firm in next six months 67 33 0 0
Finance and Insurance
Business Conditions in local economy in next six months 20 60 20 0
Level of activity of your firm in next six months 80 20 0 0

 
Summary:

Results from the June 2005 survey indicate an upturn in expectations about general business conditions in the local economy after five consecutive instances of declining sentiment that began with the March 2004 survey. Over the past four years survey respondents have identified the following important challenges to their activities: health care expenses for employees, availability of employees, competition from other businesses, and quality of labor. In the most recent survey, three of the four have been identified as the most pressing problems. Consistently, over the past year, firms are more optimistic about their own prospects compared to what they think will be happening to the overall economy. The most recent survey found that 30 percent of reporting firms felt that future business conditions are likely to improve while 41 percent expect an expansion in activity level during the next six months.

 

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For additional Information:

Professor Mohammed Khayum
Department of Economics & Finance

Phone: 812/465-1681
Email:
mkhayum@usi.edu

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University of Southern Indiana

College of Business
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Evansville, Indiana 47712